- A demeanour during a weekly technicals on USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Crude
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In this array we scale-back and take a demeanour during a broader technical design to benefit a bit some-more viewpoint on where we are in trend. Here are a pivotal levels that matter streamer into a condensed holiday week.
USD/JPY Weekly Chart
Notes: Last month we highlighted that our, “immediate concentration is on a mangle of a 112.14-114.33 range to offer guidance,” with a downside mangle final week changeable a concentration reduce in USD/JPY. Interim support is eyed during a 61.8% retracement of a Sep allege during 110.15 corroborated by a Mar pitch low / 2017 low-week tighten during 107.84 – 108.13– a mangle there would risk estimable waste with such a unfolding targeting a 61.8% retracement of a 2016 allege during 106.38.
Bottom line: Price could see some miscarry this week after this new decrease though a concentration stays weighted to a downside while next a 200-week relocating normal that converges on a 2018 open during 112.50/65 with bearish cancellation solid during 114.33. From a trade standpoint, I’ll preference vanishing strength eventually targeting a mangle sub-110.15.
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- A outline of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long USD/JPY- a ratio stands during +1.96 (66.2% of traders are long) – bearishreading
- Retail has remained net-long given Dec 29; cost has changed 2.2% reduce given then
- Long positions are 12.2% aloft than yesterday and 43.5% aloft from final week
- Short positions are 7.0% reduce than yesterday and 22.7% reduce from final week
- We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices might continue to fall. Traders are serve net-long than yesterday and final week, and a multiple of stream view and new changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trade bias.
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EUR/JPY Weekly Chart
Notes: EUR/JPY is contrast a pivotal technical insurgency connection early in a year during 136.32 where a 161.8% Fibonacci prolongation converges on a simple together resistance. Note that a movement form continues to prominence ongoing bearish dissimilarity and leaves a evident allege during risk while next this threshold. Interim support rests during a monthly opening-range lows during a 133-handle with broader bullish cancellation set to 130.00/50– this segment is tangible by a 23.6% retracement of a late-2016 allege a 200-week relocating normal and converges on simple slope support.
Bottom line: EUR/JPY is contrast up-trend insurgency with a evident allege during risk sub-136.32. From a trade standpoint, I’ll preference vanishing debility into constructional support with a crack of a highs eventually targeting a convene towards connection insurgency during 140.99.
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Crude Weekly Chart
Notes: Last week we highlighted a pivotal near-term resistance separator in wanton prices at 64.78– “this turn is tangible by a 100% prolongation of a 2016 allege and converges on a median-line of a descending pitchfork arrangement we’ve been tracking for months now.” While a crack above a 55-handle late-last year keeps a broader concentration aloft in oil, a evident allege stays exposed while next this threshold. Interim support rests during 59.94 – 60.06 with broader bullish cancellation solid during 55.
Bottom line: We’re on a surveillance for a pullback in prices to offer some-more auspicious long-entries while above 55 with a crack aloft targeting a vicious Fibonacci insurgency connection during 70.41-71.21.
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Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives
- A Weekly Technical Perspective on DXY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD
- A Weekly Technical Perspective on Gold, Copper, Crude
- A Weekly Technical Perspective on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD
– Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX