AUD: Too Early to Call an End to Upward Trend

AUD: Too Early to Call an End to Upward Trend

Talking Points:

  • AUD/USD has been climbing usually given early May yet has begun to remove a ceiling momentum.
  • Still, it is too early to contend that a trend has altered and it is now about to conduct lower.
  • One to watch out for: a RBA Governor’s entrance before a House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics in Melbourne.

Fundamental Forecast for AUD Neutral

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The Australian Dollar has been on a hurl given early May, with AUD/USD climbing from a low around 0.7330 to a high of 0.8063 in late July. Since afterwards it has eased back, trade during 0.7920 in late European business Friday.

However, it is distant too early to contend a trend is over, as a economy stays in good shape. Retail sales information Friday showed a month/month boost of 0.3% in June, rather than a 0.2% expected, and sell sales ex-inflation rose by 1.5% quarter/quarter in Q2, rather than a likely 1.2%.

Moreover, a Reserve Bank of Australia’s matter on financial process was some-more upbeat than it seemed during initial sight. While a mercantile expansion forecasts were lowered, a projected increases of 2.0%-3.0% year/year in 2017 and 2.5%-3.5% in a initial half of 2018 are still robust.

The usually vital concerns are a impact of a clever banking on a economy, a probable slack in China, that buys copiousness of Australia’s exports, and delayed salary expansion that could import on consumption. Neither a information nor a matter had most impact on AUD/USD, with a late tumble Friday due to a US practice news rather than anything privately Australian.

Chart: AUD/USD One-Hour Timeframe (July 27 to Aug 4, 2017)

AUD: Too Early to Call an End to Upward Trend

Chart by IG

As for a week ahead, there are few vital mercantile releases on a calendar so a categorical scheduled eventuality will be Friday’s entrance by RBA Governor Philip Lowe before a House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics in Melbourne. Unless he is suddenly dovish, there is reason to trust that a uptrend will resume, yet maybe not until after a serve duration of consolidation.

— Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To hit Martin, email him during martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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