AUD/USD Outlook Hinges on Australia Retail Sales, Turnbull Budget

Australia Retail Sales to Increase 0.3% Following 0.6% Expansion in 4Q 2016.

Household Spending to Rebound 0.3% After Unexpectedly Contracting 0.1% in February.

Trading a News: Australia Retail Sales

Australia Retail Sales

AUD/USD stands during risk of fluctuating a decrease from progressing this month should Australia’s Retail Sales news expel a enervated opinion for enlargement and inflation. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull’s 2017-18 bill might lean a aussie-dollar sell rate as a bloc supervision skeleton to boost open spending and pledges quell corporate taxes, and a pull to inspire a stronger economy might worsen a interest of a Australian dollar as it raises a Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) range to pierce divided from it’s easing cycle.

Why Is This Event Important:

Even yet a RBA appears to be in no rush to normalize financial policy, a element change in a mercantile opinion might pull Governor Philip Lowe Co. to change their balance generally as officials disagree ‘the recently announced supervisory measures should assistance residence a risks compared with high and rising levels of indebtedness.’ With that said, a RBA might uncover a larger eagerness to lift a central money rate off of a record-low as ‘the economy is stability a transition following a finish of a mining investment boom, with a drag from a decrease in mining investment entrance to an finish and exports of resources picking up.

Have a doubt about a banking markets? Join a Trading QA webinar and ask it live!

Impact that Australia Retail Sales has had on AUD/USD during a prior quarter

4Q Australia Retail Sales

AUD/USD 15-Minute


Australia Retail Sales increasing 0.9% after holding prosaic during a three-months by September, while domicile spending suddenly slipped 0.1% in Dec amid forecasts for a 0.3% rise. A deeper demeanour during a news showed sales of domicile products slumped 2.3% in a final month of 2016, while direct for attire increasing 1.4%, with dialect store sales also climbing 0.3%. The Australian dollar struggled to reason a belligerent following a churned collection of data, with AUD/USD pulling behind from 0.7676 to finish a day during 0.7659.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish AUD Trade: Australia Retail Sales Continues to Disappoint

  • Need a red, five-minute candle following a sales news to cruise a brief AUD/USD position.
  • If marketplace greeting favors a bearish aussie trade, sell AUD/USD with dual apart lots.
  • Set stop during a near-by pitch high/reasonable stretch from entry; demeanour for during slightest 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial aim is met, set reasonable limit.

Bullish AUD Trade: Private-Sector Consumption Exceeds Market Expectations

  • Need a green, five-minute candle to preference a prolonged aussie trade.
  • Carry out a same setup as a bearish AUD trade, only in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release


AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using Trading View

  • AUD/USD continues to lane a 2016-range following a unsuccessful run a a Nov high (0.7778), and a span stays during risk of giving behind a allege from a start of 2017 as cost a Relative Strength Index (RSI) mostly safety a bearish formations from March; however, a miss of movement to break/close next a Fibonacci overlie around 0.7390 (38.2% retracement) to 0.7420 (61.8% retracement) might encourage a near-term miscarry generally as a span comes adult opposite channel support, with a initial topside jump entrance in around 0.7459 (38.2% retracement) followed by 0.7500 (50% retracement) to 0.7530 (38.2% expansion).
  • Interim Resistance: 0.7730 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7770 (61.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 0.7150 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7180 (61.8% retracement)

Make Sure to Check Out a DailyFX Guides for Additional Trading Ideas!

IG Sentiment

Retail merchant information shows 60.7% of traders are net-long AUD/USD with a ratio of traders prolonged to brief during 1.55 to 1. The commission of traders net-long is now a top given December 13 when AUD/USD traded nearby 0.74932. The series of traders net-long is 15.1% aloft than yesterday and 45.2% aloft from final week, while a series of traders net-short is 5.9% aloft than yesterday and 23.6% reduce from final week.

For More Information on Retail Sentiment, Check Out a New Gauge Developed by DailyFX Based on Trader Positioning

For More Updates, Join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song for LIVE Analysis!

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To hit David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter during @DavidJSong.

To be combined to David’s e-mail placement list, greatfully follow this link.

About author

U.S., China to join climate deal

It will come into effect 30 days after at least 55 countries, accounting for 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, have ratified it. World ...