AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Price Testing Critical Uptrend Support

The Australian Dollar is coming multi-year uptrend support after plummeting scarcely 6% off a yearly highs. If a broader uptrend is to sojourn viable, prices will need to find a low forward of this pivotal constructional support connection in a days to come. It’s make-or-break here for a Aussie.

AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: In this week’s Technical Perspective, we remarkable that a Australian Dollar was, “approached a long-term support connection we’ve been tracking given a start of a year during 7612/37. This segment represents a vicious rhythm indicate for cost and IF damaged would risk a estimable sell-off in a Aussie.” Put simply, cost is trade only above vital uptrend support and we’re on a surveillance for an depletion low while above 7612.

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AUD/USD 240min Price Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart - 240min Timeframe

Notes: A closer demeanour during cost movement see’s Aussie trade within a proportions of a forward channel arrangement with a reduce parallels serve highlighting support into 7612. A near-term embedded channel keeps a concentration reduce while next a weekly opening-range highs with a crack above 7707 indispensable to get things going. Such a unfolding targets successive topside objectives during 7748, 7780 and a 61.8% retracement during 7812. A mangle / daily tighten next 7612 would nullify a annulment play and keep a short-bias in concentration targeting 7552 corroborated by 7501 a 50% retracement during 7476.

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Bottom line: Be on a surveillance for a near-term depletion low with 7637 7612 both representing pivotal zones of interest. From a trade standpoint, I’ll preference vanishing debility into this support connection with a crack above channel insurgency indispensable to countenance a near-term reversal. Ultimately, this is a BIG turn for Aussie and a mangle next could infer depot to a multi-year uptrend – step easily until we get some convincing near-term cost action.

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AUD/USD IG Client Positioning

AUD/USD Client Sentiment

  • A outline of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUDUSD- a ratio stands during +1.16 (53.8% of traders are long) –weak bearishreading
  • Retail has remained net-long given Mar 22nd; cost has changed 1.4% reduce given then
  • Long positions are 4.3% reduce than yesterday and 11.2% aloft from final week
  • Short positions are 13.6% aloft than yesterday and 5.1% aloft from final week
  • We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests AUDUSD prices might continue to fall. Traders are reduction net-long than yesterday though some-more net-long from final week andthe multiple of stream positioning and new changes gives us a serve churned AUDUSD trade bias from a view standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn some-more about sentiment!

Relevant Data Releases

AUD/USD Economic Calendar

Other Setups in Play

– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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