AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Trading a Aussie Price Recovery

The Australian Dollar responded to pivotal long-term Fibonacci support final week with a liberation now coming initial insurgency objectives. These are a updated intraday targets invalidations levels that matter on a AUD/USD charts. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth relapse of this setup and more.

AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart

Technical Outlook: In final week’s Technical Perspective on a Australian Dollar, we remarkable that, “Aussie is contrast downtrend support here and leaves a broader AUD/USD short-bias exposed while above 7327. We’ll be looking for serve justification that an depletion low is in place.” Price pennyless by a initial monthly opening-range highs on building bullish dissimilarity late-last week with a Aussie rallying some-more than 2.3% off a monthly low.

The pierce keeps a broader concentration aloft while above a May lows / monthly open support during 7411/12 with daily insurgency eyed during 7494 and a 61.8% retracement during 7537. Ultimately a crack above 7569 would be indispensable to advise a larger-scale annulment is underway.

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AUD/USD 120min Price Chart

AUD/USD 120min Price Chart

Notes: A closer demeanour during AUD/USD cost movement shows a span trade within a proportions of a well-defined ascending pitchfork formation fluctuating off a Jun / Jul lows with cost branch from connection insurgency currently during 7476.

Interim support rests during 7450/55 corroborated by a median-line / weekly open during 7431. I’ll be looking for a greeting there – any reduce would risk a dump towards 7411 a bullish cancellation levels during 7397– both regions of seductiveness for depletion / long-entries IF reached. A topside crack of a highs targets successive insurgency objectives during 7494 and a top together / 61.8% retracement during 7537.

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Bottom line: The evident hazard is for a deeper pullback here though I’ll preference vanishing debility towards constructional support levels starting during a median-line. Keep in mind a mercantile calendar is rather light from Australia this week – keep an eye on a ongoing tariff talks with broader risk perspective expected to take cues off channel Trade War headlines. Join me on Friday for my Foundations of Technical Analysis webinar array to examination this mechanics of trade this setup and more!

For a finish relapse of Michael’s trade strategy, examination his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

AUD/USD Trader Positioning

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment

  • A outline of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long a AUD/USD- a ratio stands during +1.69 (62.9% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long given June 5th; cost has changed 1.9% reduce given then
  • Long positions are 0.5% reduce than yesterday and 8.3% reduce from final week
  • Short positions are3.8% reduce than yesterday and 22.0% aloft from final week
  • We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices might continue to fall. Traders are some-more net-long than yesterday though reduction net-long from final week. The multiple of stream positioning and new changes gives us a serve churned AUD/USD trade bias from a perspective standpoint.

See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn some-more about sentiment!

Relevant AUD/USD Data Releases

AUD/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendarlatest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Other Setups in Play

– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or hit him during mboutros@dailyfx.com

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