Brexit Briefing: British Pound Ending Pre-Christmas Trading Firmer

Talking Points

An upwardly revised third-quarter UK mercantile expansion figure continues to uncover no distinct impact from a preference to leave a EU.

The British Pound is firmer opposite both a US Dollar and a Euro after a information nonetheless GBPUSD is still not distant from a Oct lows.

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The British Pound changed kindly aloft in European morning trade on Friday after a third-quarter UK mercantile expansion figure was revised higher. GDP expansion quarter-over-quarter was revised to 0.6% in a July-September duration from a 0.5% formerly estimated; however, a year-over-year figure was revised down to 2.2% from 2.3%.

The data, that describe unconditionally to a duration after a British citizens voted on Jun 23 to leave a EU, continue to advise there has been no impact on a economy so distant from a decision. UK GDP in volume terms was adult from a prior guess thanks to ceiling revisions from a outlay of a business services and financial industries. It was a 15th uninterrupted entertain of certain expansion given a Jan to Mar duration of 2013 nonetheless a information for both a initial and second buliding of 2016 were revised down by 0.1 commission points, while a figure for a third entertain was revised adult by 0.1 commission points.

Robust consumer direct continued to assistance a UK economy grow usually in a third entertain of 2016. Growth was somewhat stronger than initial thought, though, due to larger output in a financial sector, remarkable Darren Morgan, head of GDP during a Office for National Statistics.

Immediately after a total were released, EURGBP slipped behind while GBPUSD was tolerably aloft nonetheless usually only above a lows reached in Oct and still next a 1.23 turn that some commentators see as critical psychologically.

Chart: GBPUSD 1-Minute (December 23)

Brexit Briefing: British Pound Ending Pre-Christmas Trading Firmer

Growth in a UK use zone was revised adult to 0.3% from 0.2% nonetheless a stream comment necessity was estimated during 5.2% of GDP, adult from 4.6% in a second quarter, and a arise in business investment was revised down to 0.4% from a prior guess of 0.9%.

Separately, a Lloyds Business Barometer suggested that UK business certainty finished a year during a top turn given March, increased by a burst in mercantile optimism. Companies’ possess business prospects for a entrance year remained strong, notwithstanding circumference reduce from final month, and view softened in a industrial, consumer services and business services sectors, nonetheless employing intentions fell to their lowest turn given February.

While some distinction holding in a US Dollar is still approaching after a new strength, a stream misunderstanding in a European banking zone looks set to upset both a Euro and a Pound for a while yet. There is service that uneasy Italian lender Monte dei Paschi has been positive a bailout, while Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse have staid with a US Department of Justice for pre-financial-crisis mis-selling, nonetheless a UK’s Barclays is still holding out for a smaller fine.

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— Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To hit Martin, email him atmartin.essex@ig.com

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