CAC 40 to Move on Presidential Election Results; FTSE 100 during Support, S&P 500 in Limbo

CAC 40 to Move on Presidential Election Results; FTSE 100 during Support, Samp;P 500 in Limbo

What’s inside:

  • SP 500 still loath in a hunt for direction; improvement over or to continue?
  • FTSE 100 takes a tough strike on choosing announcement, starting week during pivotal support
  • The large title for a CAC 40 is a French presidential choosing on Sunday

SP 500

Markets will start out a week with a French presidential choosing on their minds, though to what impact it will have on U.S. markets expected depends on a bulk to that Europe moves, and any greeting a U.S. has might be short-lived. Looking to key mercantile events on a docket; ‘high’ impact information releases embody Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Advanced Goods Trade Balance and Durable Goods Orders on Thursday, and 1Q GDP on Friday. President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he will betray a taxation devise this entrance week. Markets will roughly positively uncover a response once a sum are released.

Last week, a SP sealed aloft after dual uninterrupted down weeks, though is struggling to overcome a top-side trend-line using down off a Mar 1 record high. A plain tighten above this line of resistance, along with a recapturing of a Nov trend-line and mangle above a 4/5 pitch high during 2378 will be deliberate a large positive; significantly augmenting a odds a multi-week improvement is over. However, if a marketplace can’t pull above remarkable levels we demeanour for it to pierce reduce towards a 4/13 low during 2329 and Mar low of 2322, and presumably carve out a reduce low towards 2300. The final line of support should offered turn assertive will be a trend-line rising adult from a Feb 2016 low. Overall, cost movement in new weeks – either a convene commences from here or from reduce – is noticed as a improvement of a ‘Trump Trade’, and will expected lead to new record highs down a road.

SP 500: Daily

CAC 40 to Move on Presidential Election Results; FTSE 100 during Support, Samp;P 500 in Limbo

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For a longer-term perspective on markets, check out a Q2 forecasts.

FTSE 100

To start a week, markets will take seductiveness in how events vessel out with a French presidential election. U.K. choosing headlines will sojourn a consistent risk relocating forward. Looking to a mercantile calendar a usually ‘high’ impact information set to be expelled is 1Q GDP on Friday. For a full report of information to be published, see a economic calendar.

On Tuesday, a FTSE 100 took a brief of scarcely 2.5% on a proclamation by Theresa May for an early ubiquitous election. The dump came after a final onslaught during a 2013 top-side trend-line we’ve been discussing here for a few weeks. The Jun trend-line and triple bottoms given mid-March were simply privileged along with a swing-low in February. Last week, a footsie sealed right on critical support surrounding 7100, that consists of a before rise in Oct incited support in early February. If a marketplace can’t start to mountain a liberation from here it’s during risk of serve waste in a week ahead, with a 200-day MA as a subsequent turn of support. If support binds we will demeanour to 7192 as a initial turn of resistance, and with a clever miscarry a multi-week bottoms in a 7155/63 closeness could come into play.

FTSE 100: Daily

CAC 40 to Move on Presidential Election Results; FTSE 100 during Support, Samp;P 500 in Limbo

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CAC 40

The market’s courtesy will be entirely placed on a French presidential choosing on Sunday. It’s now a parsimonious competition and formidable to make a call on who will win, though there is a high odds that zero of a possibilities secure a required series of votes for an undisguised win. This will lead to a run-off opinion between dual possibilities on May 7. (See here for serve details.) How a marketplace will conflict is zero some-more than a guess, so on that we will take a conservative position during these capricious times.

Looking during a weekly chart, a CAC pennyless out and sealed on a weekly and monthly basement above a trend-line fluctuating down over a 2007 and 2015 peaks from a 2000 record high. This past week a marketplace took a strike behind next a trend-line, though managed to tighten a week behind above it. So far, a successful retest. Election aside, this leads us to trust we could see aloft prices as prolonged as final week’s low of 4980 holds.

CAC 40: Weekly

CAC 40 to Move on Presidential Election Results; FTSE 100 during Support, Samp;P 500 in Limbo

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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