CAD Rally: Too Much, Too Soon?

CAD Rally: Too Much, Too Soon?

Talking Points:

  • USD/CAD falls to lows seen in May 2015 on Rate Hike
  • Further hikes are being mooted though will a BoC wait?
  • USD debility is exacerbating a move.

Fundamental Forecast for CAD: Neutral

We sojourn neutral on CAD nonetheless any serve pointy ceiling moves might open a event to sell CAD opposite a USD for a short-term reversal. USD/CAD has depressed 12% in a final 4 months – from 1.3790 to 1.21350 – while a USD Dollar Basket has depressed 7.6% over a same timeframe.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has hiked rates by 0.25% during both of a final dual process assembly (July and September) withdrawal commentators divided over a timing of a subsequent move. Commentating on this week’s hike, a executive bank remarkable that new mercantile information had been ‘stronger than expected’ ancillary a bank’s perspective that expansion in Canada is apropos ‘more broadly-based and self-sustaining’. However a ruling legislature also remarkable that there was some additional ability in Canada’s work market, while given towering domicile indebtedness, ‘close courtesy will be paid to a attraction of a economy to aloft seductiveness rates’.

The subsequent assembly on Oct 25 also coincides with a latest quarterly Monetary Policy Report where BoC administrator Stephen Poloz will give updated superintendence on a economy, including acceleration projections.

Looking during a weekly USD/CAD draft a strength of a Loonie can be clearly seen, though a final pointy downturn after this this week’s travel has left a ‘gap’ that needs stuffing behind to 1.23380 before a Loonie can conclude further. Further upside insurgency comes in a form of July’s aged ‘triple-bottom’ during 1.24120 while a May 2015 low during 1.19190 is a initial aim for CAD bulls.

Chart: USD/CAD Daily Time Frame (May – Sep 8, 2017)

CAD Rally: Too Much, Too Soon?

Chart by IG

And we can check out a latest Q3 trade foresee for a Canadian Dollar here.

— Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To hit Nick, email him during nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

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