Cautious BoC Curbs USD/CAD Weakness, November-High on a Radar

Talking Points:

Cautious BoC Curbs USD/CAD Weakness, November-High on a Radar.

AUD/USD Holds Monthly Opening Range Ahead of More RBA Rhetoric.

DailyFX TableUSD/CAD

USD/CAD might continue to retrace a decrease from progressing this month as a Bank of Canada (BoC) keeps a benchmark seductiveness rate during 1.00% and tames expectations for an approaching rate-hike.

The uninformed remarks from Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. advise a executive bank is in no rush to exercise aloft borrowing-costs as a new pickup in acceleration is mostly driven by ‘temporary factors, quite gasoline prices,’ and a BoC might continue to buy some-more time during a subsequent seductiveness rate preference on Jan 17 as officials echo that ‘the stream position of financial process stays appropriate.’ Nevertheless, a BoC might blueprint a some-more minute exit plan over a entrance months as a executive bank records ‘higher seductiveness rates will expected be compulsory over time,’ though USD/CAD stands during risk of confronting range-bound conditions over a near-term generally as marketplace courtesy turns to a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) seductiveness rate preference on Dec 13.

USD/CAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

  • USD/CAD appears to be on a approach to exam a October-high (1.2917) as it snaps a array of reduce highs lows from progressing this month, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) branch around forward of trendline support.
  • Failure to mangle subsequent a 1.2620 (50% retracement) jump lifting a risk for a pierce behind towards 1.2830 (38.2% retracement), with a near-term opinion capped by a former-support section around1.2980 (61.8% retracement) to 1.3030 (50% expansion).


AUD/USD pares a allege from progressing this month following Australia’s weaker-than-expected 3Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report, though uninformed tongue from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials might keep a sell rate afloat should a executive bank gradually change a opinion for financial policy.

Governor Philip Lowe might echo that ‘it is some-more expected that a subsequent pierce in seductiveness rates will be up, rather than down as a executive bank conduct is scheduled to pronounce during a Australian Payment Summit, and a RBA might start to ready households and businesses for aloft borrowing-costs as ‘the executive foresee is for GDP enlargement to normal around 3 per cent over a subsequent few years.’ Keep in mind, a RBA appears to be in no rush to mislay a record-low money rate as ‘household incomes are flourishing slowly and debt levels are high,’ though Governor Lowe Co. might start to adopt a hawkish tinge over a entrance months as ‘the Bank’s executive foresee stays for acceleration to collect adult gradually as a economy strengthens.

In turn, AUD/USD might theatre a some-more suggestive miscarry off of a November-low (0.7532), with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) still during risk of flashing a bullish trigger as it continues to bluster trendline resistance.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

  • AUD/USD might continue to face range-bound conditions as a 0.7530 (38.2% expansion) segment offers near-term support, while a near-term opinion stays capped by a 0.7650 (38.2% retracement) hurdle.
  • However, disaster to safety a monthly-low (0.7551) might open adult a downside targets, with a subsequent segment of seductiveness entrance in around 0.7560 (23.6% retracement) to 0.7490 (50% retracement).
  • Keeping a tighten eye on a RSI as it pushes divided from oversold territory, with a 0.7720 (23.6% retracement) to 0.7770 (61.8% expansion) segment still on a radar as it lines adult with a November-high (0.7730).

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