Crude Oil Prices May Fall Absent Hopes for Deeper Output Cuts

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices exposed if OPEC-led producers frustrate during deeper outlay cuts
  • Gold prices competence be onslaught to extend gains if US PMIs relate new information flow
  • What will expostulate longer-term wanton oil and bullion cost trends? See a forecasts

Crude oil prices tumbled after tanker tracker Petro-Logistics SA pronounced OPEC outlay will surpass 33 million barrels per day in July, creation it a largest nonetheless this year. That stocked doubt about a ability of a cartel-led prolongation cut bid to work off a tellurian supply bolt and boost prices.

All eyes now spin to St Petersburg, where member of vital producers holding partial in a concurrent outlay rebate intrigue will accommodate to plead their progress. Prices competence tumble serve if comments from a sit-down say a standing quo but signaling deeper cuts are a possibility.

Gold prices rose as a US Dollar fell with front-end Treasury bond yields, boosting a interest of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets. Deteriorating Fed rate travel expectations seemed to expostulate a move, with a luck of another boost in 2017 descending to a lowest in a month during 40.4 percent.

From here, a rough set of July’s US PMI surveys is in focus. Recent US information outcomes have carefully softened relations to forecasts, opening a doorway for serve upside surprises that competence top bullion gains in a nearby term. A durability annulment before a FOMC process announcement seems doubtful however.

Retail traders are betting that bullion will rise. Find out here what that hints about a entrance trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices posted a largest allege in a month, holding out insurgency during 1250.38 noted by a 50% Fibonacci retracement. The subsequent covering of insurgency is during 1261.16, a 61.8% level, with a daily tighten above that exposing a 76.4% Fib during 1274.50. Alternatively, a annulment behind subsequent 1250.38 – now recast as support – targets a 38.2% retracement during 1239.60.

Crude Oil Prices May Fall Absent Hopes for Deeper Output Cuts

Chart combined regulating TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices recoiled from insurgency in a 47.10-29 area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, Jul 4 high). A mangle reduce reliable on a daily tighten subsequent support during 45.32 opens a doorway for a retest of a May 5 low during 43.79. Alternatively, a pierce above 47.29 sees a subsequent upside separator noted by a 50% Fib during 48.65.

Crude Oil Prices May Fall Absent Hopes for Deeper Output Cuts

Chart combined regulating TradingView

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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