Dollar Drops on Reports that China May Slow or Halt Treasury Purchases

Talking Points:

– The U.S. Dollar sold-off after a news began to disseminate that China might be looking to serve delayed or hindrance Treasury purchases.

– This constructed a burst in Treasury Yields to go along with a dump in a U.S. Dollar; pulling a Greenback towards 2018 support, around 91.80 in ‘DXY’.

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The U.S. Dollar put in another bearish pierce this morning, with a past integrate of hours wiping divided many of a post-NFP gains that had come-in to a Greenback. One of a drivers, if not a expected law-breaker of a sell-off is a present report indicating that officials in Beijing have endorsed ‘slowing or halting’ book purchases. The news came out around Bloomberg around 5:26 AM Eastern Time, and that’s right around a time that this new sell-off began.

The timing of this warning is expected some-more than coincidence, as a 10-Year only crossed 2.5%, and final night, only hours before this news began to make a approach by markets – a opposite news indicated that a U.S. would confirm on trade sanctions opposite China after this month. While many are examination a conditions around North Korea for heightened sanctions, a news final night indicated that a U.S. will be questioning sanctions as a pill for a large trade necessity that a U.S. has with China. The net response so distant has been a arise in U.S. Treasury Yields to go along with a pierce of conspicuous debility in a U.S. Dollar, as shown in a red box below.

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U.S. Dollar around ‘DXY’ 15-Minute Chart: Post-NFP Gains Wiped Out by Sellers

USD 15 Minute Chart with Early Morning Sell-Off

Chart prepared by James Stanley

We looked into a arena of a U.S. Dollar yesterday, and we’d forked out a turn of 92.60 as near-term resistance. That turn hold around yesterday, and with cost movement now creation a quick run towards 2018 support around 91.80, a large doubt is either buyers will be means to uncover some component of support on a re-test of that level.

U.S. Dollar around ‘DXY’ Four-Hour: Dec Swing-Low, Jan Swing-High; 2018 Support ~91.80

USD Four-Hour Chart with Resistance during Prior Dec Support

Chart prepared by James Stanley

On a daily draft below, we’re looking during a longer-term structure in DXY in a bid of identifying additional supports next near-term swing-lows. Just next short-term support, or a 2018 lows around 91.80, we have a intensity support turn around 91.36. This is a 50% retracement of a 2014-2017 bullish pierce in USD, and only next that during 91.01 we have a 2017 low that was set in a early apportionment of September.

U.S. Dollar around ‘DXY’ Daily: Longer-Term Support Structure Adds Emphasis to 2017 Low

USD Daily with Longer-Term Support Structure

Chart prepared by James Stanley

EUR/USD Finding Short-Term Resistance during 1.2000

Going along with this pierce of USD-weakness has been a pop-higher in EUR/USD. Prices have rallied behind to a psychological turn of 1.2000, that had formerly given us a brief sip of support shortly after a open of a New Year. While this is expected constrained for bullish delay scenarios, traders would expected wish to take into comment a fact that insurgency is display off of aged support, indicating that a retracement-lower might not nonetheless be finished.

EUR/USD Four-Hour: Sellers Responding to Whole Number Resistance Around 1.2000

EUR/USD Facing Resistance during Prior Support of 1.2000

Chart prepared by James Stanley


For short-side USD-stances, USD/CAD might be one of a some-more appealing candidates. After final week’s jobs numbers, with Canadian practice entrance in really clever during a same time that NFP’s came out weak, a short-side run in USD/CAD continued. Last Friday saw prices mangle next a pivotal psychological turn of 1.2500, and after throwing a retracement in a initial dual trade days of this week, prices are tip-toeing behind to 1.2500 as intensity resistance. Just next 1.2500, during 1.2491, we have a 50% Fibonacci retracement of a September-December bullish pierce in USD/CAD, and this can assistance to emanate a section of intensity support that sellers can demeanour to for down-side exposure.

USD/CAD Daily: Potential Resistance Off of Prior Whole Number Support ~1.2500

USD/CAD Nearing Potential Resistance Around Whole Number of 1.2500

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

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