GBP/USD Pulls Back on Inflation Miss, S&P 500 Rallies to Fresh Apr Highs

Talking Points:

– The British Pound is on a pierce this morning after a unsatisfactory recover of Mar acceleration numbers. Inflation came in during 2.5% to symbol a second uninterrupted month of slower cost growth, and this helped to bleed a pullback in a British Pound. GBP/USD stays messy, nonetheless a cleaner setup competence be accessible in GBP/JPY.

– US Equities continue to run higher, furthering a pierce after a bullish dermatitis progressing this week. We’re in a midst of gain deteriorate out of a US, and that will continue into month-end; yet on a bigger design basement a regard is a boost in sensitivity that’s shown in a equity space so distant this year. This highlights abating extrinsic impact of a ‘buy a dip’ plan of old, and this urges counsel for traders looking to take on bullish bearing while during or nearby short-term highs.

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UK Inflation Comes In Below Expectations

The early partial of a week started with a crash in a British Pound as a banking surged adult to uninformed post-Brexit highs opposite a US Dollar. This was only forward of Mar acceleration numbers, and as we warned yesterday, chasing during those levels could be dangerous, and a pullback could really most be in sequence given how overbought a span had become.

This morning’s inflation imitation out of a UK came out with disappointment. The expectancy was for another 2.7% imitation as we had final month; yet a tangible imitation came out during 2.5%, imprinting for a second uninterrupted month of drawdown. This put a slight check on probabilities for a May rate hike, nonetheless markets are still really most awaiting 25 bps of tightening during that subsequent Super Thursday eventuality that is now only a few weeks away.

Inflation during 2.5% in Mar Marks Second Consecutive Month of Slower Price Growth

uk cpi monthly given February, 2017

prepared by James Stanley

Pullback in a British Pound

Currency markets did not seem as ease as rate markets around this morning’s acceleration miss, as a British Pound put in a sheer annulment off of those uninformed post-Brexit highs. The pullback began yesterday, and we looked during this in a webinar, plotting a array of intensity support levels that competence re-open a doorway for topside continuation. At this point, prices have changed by dual of those intensity support levels and it appears as yet buyers are attempting to burn a low around a 1.4200 level. This would still be distant too early to use for longer-term setups, as this competence be a visual pierce forward of a deeper exam towards 1.4145.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart: Pullback After Inflation Miss is Met With a Bounce

gbpusd hourly chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

GBP/JPY Pulls Back to Prior Fibonacci Resistance, Will Support Hold?

For topside plays in a British Pound, GBP/JPY competence be a bit some-more attractive with a tide backdrop. Apr has seen a thesis of Yen-weakness solemnly trickle behind into FX markets, and this could make for an appealing reflection to compare adult with what could be a clever British Pound, given that a prevalent thesis of strength stays by today’s pullback.

We’ve been following a turn in GBP/JPY that has come into play this morning, and this turn exists during 152.17. This is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a Feb sell-off, and a 76.4% retracement of that same investigate helped to pierce on insurgency progressing this week. This was a initial support turn we looked during in yesterday’s webinar, and so distant this is assisting to reason this morning’s lows as prices have bounced by a small some-more than fifty pips during this point.

GBP/JPY Hourly Chart: Fibonacci Support during Prior Resistance

gbpjpy hourly chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

SP 500 Runs to Fresh Apr Highs

Over a past integrate of weeks we’ve been following an area of insurgency on a SP 500 that started to give approach on Monday. This insurgency had turn rather pent up, and we were looking for a topside dermatitis as bulls only would not give up. That bullish dermatitis continued by yesterday, channel a 2700 level, and now a index is using towards a insurgency turn we’d looked during around 2724. This has been a sincerely purify pierce given that there’s been really small pullback on a approach up; yet this competence also be indicating that this convene is some-more of a squeeze-type of unfolding as shorts cover while we pierce deeper into what’s been a rather clever gain deteriorate so far.

We’ll see a array of large names stability to news by April, with a complicated importance on tech names subsequent week and into a finish of a month: Facebook reports gain on Apr 25th, Google and Amazon on Apr 26th, and Apple reports on May a 1st.

Traders should be discreet around a prolonged side of a pierce during this point, and we discussed a few of a reasons as to because in yesterday’s webinar. In short, equity sensitivity has taken on a opposite tinge so distant this year, and given a moves that we’ve seen in US rates markets, this could be a pointer of a bigger improvement on a horizon. The ‘buy a dip’ plan that became so renouned in a arise of a Financial Collapse appears to be bringing abating extrinsic returns, as mostly happens nearby a finish of a trend, and if we do get another revisit to a 2530-2550 area on a SP 500, we competence not have such a clever response during support.

SP 500 Rallies to Fresh Apr Highs, But Bigger-Picture Corrective Move Remains a Possibility

spx500 hourly chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

On a daily draft of a SP 500, we can see where a crowd has started to form with a lower-highs of 2018 being joined with a before bullish trend-line that draws behind to a summer of 2016. We’ve also combined 21-period Average True Range to assistance illustrate a pickup in sensitivity that we’ve seen so distant this year. This begs a question: Have we already seen a 2018 high in a SP 500?

SP 500 Daily Chart: Lower-Highs, Pickup in Volatility Highlight Topping Potential

spx500 daily chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USD/JPY Builds into a Bullish Channel

This is a shorter-term observation, yet given a intensity impact for longer-term trends, a estimable of mention. USD/JPY has built-in to a short-term bullish channel, and this competence be highlighting a lapse of Yen-weakness after a sheer uncover of strength in Feb and March. We’ve been following a bullish annulment in USD/JPY as Yen-weakness has started to uncover up, and yesterday we focused-in on a strike of support during before insurgency around 106.61. Since afterwards – we’ve seen bulls stability to bid during aloft lows, and this could be serve justification of a intensity lapse of Yen-weakness.

USD/JPY Hourly Chart: Build of Bullish Channel

usdjpy hourly chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

The US Dollar competence be a muted reflection to work with that theme. Given a assertive downtrend that’s shown in a US banking over a past year, traders competence be best served by looking to marry-up a potentially diseased Yen with another banking that competence uncover a some-more unchanging tide of strength. We looked during GBP/JPY above, and that stays a viable option, yet also on a list is EUR/JPY, as we’ve been following over a past week. So distant in April, price movement has climbed above a pivotal territory of support/resistance that runs from 131.43 adult to 132.05. This territory had helped to support a span by a final few months of final year, and this area became insurgency after a annulment in February. After a month of shake by March, prices have climbed back-above this price, making for a box of support during before insurgency that was prior support.

EUR/JPY Daily Chart: Support during Prior Resistance that Was Previous Support

eurjpy daily chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To review more:

Are we looking for longer-term research on a U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q1 have a territory for any vital currency, and we also offer a engorgement of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay adult with near-term positioning around a IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

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— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

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