Gold Prices Remain in Bull Trend Despite 2nd Down Week in 10

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bullish

For usually a second time in 10 weeks, bullion prices finished a week lower. The biggest growth of a past week pushing bullion reduce was a Fed’s seductiveness rate expectations. On Monday, Fed Fund futures were presaging a 50% possibility of a rate travel during a Fed’s assembly on Mar 15. As a speeches from Trump and Fed officials rolled in, traders began to trust a rate travel was occurring earlier than later.

As a result, we saw rate travel expectations bloat to 98% on Friday Mar 3 and bullion prices sole off briefly.

Logic would foreordain that a rate travel from a Fed would expostulate a dollar aloft and gold, that yields nothing, lower. That settlement has been seen in a cost movement of a past integrate days. However, if we vessel out we can viewpoint how a dual new Fed rate hikes were followed by rising bullion prices. It is transparent from a draft next that augmenting rates and even a new boost in rate travel expectations has driven bullion cost higher.

Gold Prices Remain in Bull Trend Despite 2nd Down Week in 10

Perhaps bullion is signaling augmenting acceleration or that a rate tightening cycle is on hold. Fed Fund futures don’t agree. We will get another glance into a US economy this Friday as US Non-Farm Payrolls are released.

We continue to declare bullish technical signals. For example, bullion prices have remained inside a Elliott Wave channel (blue). Additionally, cost and a Ichimoku lagging line (purple line) sojourn above a Ichimoku cloud. We have confirmed a bullish disposition given Dec 29 when we argued that Gold prices could benefit in a face of lifting rates.

From a view perspective, Gold’s SSI reading has usually been dwindling given Jan 2017. A dwindling SSI advise bullish undertones for a yellow metal. Gold’s SSI reading sits during +1.58 and we can see live merchant positioning on a SSI page.

What is a quarterly opinion for Gold? Find out with a quarterly trade guide.

—Written by Jeremy Wagner

Join me for US Opening Bell webinars on Mondays or Elliott Wave educational webinars on Tuesdays.

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