Fundamental Forecast for USOIL: Bullish
- Front-Month WTI Continuing To Struggle Near 19-Month Closing High, APF Resistance
- Technical Post: Crude Oil Price Forecast: WTI Within 1XATR Of 2017 Highs On OPEC News
- U.S. Crude Inventories At Highest Level Since Oct 1930
- See a DailyFX Economic Calendar to find what live coverage for pivotal eventuality risk conversion FX and Energy markets is scheduled for a entrance days on a DailyFX Webinar Calendar.
Where will a Crude Oil go in a initial entertain of 2017? Get a foresee here!
The Oil marketplace finds itself in a singular mark of a commodity landscape of Q117. Two of a largest tellurian suppliers, a United States Shale Oil Producers and a Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are trending in opposite directions while a cost seems to have stalled nearby a 2017 Opening Range high.
Regarding US Production, on Friday, a Baker Hughes US Oil supply count surfaced 600 for a initial time given 2015. The arise in U.S. prolongation can be seen by a weekly Department of Energy Data that has seen a pointy arise and can be seen on a draft subsequent that has a front-month Crude Oil agreement cost overlaid.
Data Source Bloomberg
In contrariety to a pointy arise in a prolongation of Shale Oil in a US, we have seen OPEC correspondence with their settle to change a supply and direct imbalance. The draft subsequent captures a dump in OPEC prolongation that is approaching to final by August.
This tug-of-war of perplexing to change a marketplace has a cost stranded in a middle. We continue to see US Rigs per a Baker Hughes Rig Count come onto a marketplace so a application of cost sensitivity could continue. Fortunately for a Bulls with a longer-term horizon, a reduce sensitivity has aligned with an uptrend.
Data Source: Bloomberg
Technical View:
The draft subsequent should be enlivening to a Bulls notwithstanding US prolongation increase, generally a studious ones as we demeanour to have found a new and aloft cost building that is highlighted on a draft above. In further to a viewed aloft cost support, a cost of WTI traded above a 2017 Opening Range high of $55.21 on a shutting basis. Crude Oil’s attempt to dermatitis from a 2-month cost range should reason traders attention.
The draft shows a miss of sensitivity in a Bullish environment, that for many Bulls, is only how they wish a marketplace behaving. Low sensitivity in an uptrend is what we’ve seen for many of a SP’s ancestral rise. Therefore, low sensitivity in and of itself should not be a reason for Bears to burst in and take Oil to or subsequent expected cost support.
Next Week’s Data Points That May Affect Energy:
The focal points for a appetite marketplace subsequent week will sojourn Wednesday’s EIA Petroleum Supply Report during 10:30 AM ET and Friday’s Baker-Hughes Rig Count during 1:00 PM ET.
Happy Trading!
-T.Y.
