March Forex Seasonality Sees Neutral Month for USD After Feb Rebound

Talking Points:

In March, it’s standard to see a US Dollar convene contra a British Pound and a Japanese Yen.

DXY strength, seasonally, has not been aided by a largest component, a Euro (57.6% of weighting).

US equity markets adore a finish of a initial quarter; Mar has constructed rallies 65% of a time given 1997.

See a full outline of anniversary patterns damaged down by banking pairs below, and to accept reports from this analyst, sign adult for Christopher’s distribution list.

The commencement of a month warrants a examination of a anniversary patterns that have shabby forex markets over a past several years. For March, as we did for all of 2016 and so distant in 2017, we have expanded a concentration on a duration of 1997 to 2016 in approval of a elaborating attribute between mercantile data, executive banks, and financial markets.

The longer regard duration captures several predicament events/periods that traders might find equivalent to events maturation today, even as a ramifications from Brexit are unclear: a Asian crisis; a US tech bubble; a US housing bubble; a tellurian commodity bubble; and prior rate hiking and rate slicing cycles, from a vital executive banks, during times normal (pre-2008) or unusual (post-2008). By augmenting a representation distance to 20 years, we trust a statistical fortitude of a estimates will have increasing relations to utilizing a shorter time-frame/smaller representation size.

March Forex Seasonality Sees Neutral Month for USD After Feb Rebound

Forex Seasonality in Euro (via EURUSD)

March Forex Seasonality Sees Neutral Month for USD After Feb Rebound

March is a neutral month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective, due to a miss of transparent trend over a past 20-years. The span has separate time uniformly between gains and waste in March, and a normal opening was usually +14-pips per month. EUR/USD gained in Mar 2016, after carrying unheeded in any of a 3 prior Marches.

Forex Seasonality in British Pound (via GBPUSD)

March Forex Seasonality Sees Neutral Month for USD After Feb Rebound

March is a neutral month for GBP/USD, from a seasonality perspective, due to a unsuitable opening metrics. The span has appreciated 55% of a time in Mar over a past 20-years, though a normal opening during this time support was -32-pips per month. GBP/USD had a best Mar during a regard duration in Mar 2016, after a misfortune opening ever for a third month of a year during Mar 2015.

Forex Seasonality in Japanese Yen (via USDJPY)

March Forex Seasonality Sees Neutral Month for USD After Feb Rebound

March is a bullish month for USD/JPY, from a seasonality perspective. The span has rallied 60% of a time in March over a past 20-years, and a normal performance during this time support was +91-pips per month. USD/JPY mislaid belligerent in Mar 2016 after rallying any year going behind to 2009.

Forex Seasonality in Australian Dollar (via AUDUSD)

March Forex Seasonality Sees Neutral Month for USD After Feb Rebound

March is a slightly bullish month for AUD/USD, from a seasonality perspective, due to a inconsistent opening metrics long-term (the span has separate time uniformly between gains and waste during a regard period), and a some-more new trend of gains in a short-term (AUD/USD has rallied in 6 of a past 8 Marches).The pair’s normal performance during this time support was +26-pips per month.

Forex Seasonality in DXY Index

March Forex Seasonality Sees Neutral Month for USD After Feb Rebound

From a seasonality perspective, Mar is a neutral month for a DXY Index. The total tracker of greenback value has separate time uniformly between gains and waste in March, adding +0.18-points per month during that timeframe. The DXY Index had gained belligerent any Mar from 2012 to 2015, before posting a misfortune Mar ever in 2016.

Forex Seasonality in New Zealand Dollar (via NZDUSD)

March Forex Seasonality Sees Neutral Month for USD After Feb Rebound

March is a neutral month, from a seasonality perspective, for NZD/USD. The span has spent a slight infancy of a time trade reduce in Mar over a past 20 years (55%), and a normal opening during this time support was usually +9-pips per month. NZD/USD has rallied in 6 of a 8 Marches given a financial crisis.

Forex Seasonality in Canadian Dollar (via USDCAD)

March Forex Seasonality Sees Neutral Month for USD After Feb Rebound

March is a bearish month for USD/CADfrom a seasonality perspective. The span has unheeded 70% of a time in Mar over a past 20-years, and a normal opening during this time support is -34-pips per month . Recently, USD/CAD has mislaid belligerent in 3 of a past 4 years, with a misfortune opening of a past 20-years entrance in Mar 2015.

Forex Seasonality in Swiss Franc (via USDCHF)

March Forex Seasonality Sees Neutral Month for USD After Feb Rebound

From a seasonality perspective, Mar is a neutral month for USD/CHF, due to a unsuitable opening during a final 20-years. The span has unheeded 60% of a time in Mar over a past 20-years, though a normal opening during this time support was +18-pips per month. Recently, USD/CHF had a second-worst Mar during a regard duration in 2016 after posting 3 uninterrupted years of gains (2013 to 2015).

Seasonality in SP 500

March Forex Seasonality Sees Neutral Month for USD After Feb Rebound

March is typically a bullish month for a SP 500, from a seasonality perspective, a second-best month of a year. The index has spent a infancy of a time gaining belligerent in Mar over a past-20 years, with a month producing an normal opening of +23.65-points. Mar has constructed gains in 4 of a past 5 years, with a second-best Mar during a opening duration entrance in 2016.

Seasonality in Gold

March Forex Seasonality Sees Neutral Month for USD After Feb Rebound

From a seasonality perspective, Mar is a bearish month for Gold, due to a unchanging opening metrics. Gold has unheeded 70% of a time in Mar over a past 20-years, and a normal opening during this time support was -$7.93/oz per month. Recently, Gold has posted waste in 3 true years, and has usually gained belligerent twice (2011 and 2013) given 2007.

Read more: DXY Index Clears Feb Highs as Mar Hike Odds Surge

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist

To hit Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter during @CVecchioFX.

To be combined to Christopher’s e-mail placement list, please fill out this form.

About author