– In March, it’s standard to see a US Dollar convene contra a British Pound and a Japanese Yen.
– DXY strength, seasonally, has not been aided by a largest component, a Euro (57.6% of weighting).
– US equity markets adore a finish of a initial quarter; Mar has constructed rallies 65% of a time given 1997.
See a full outline of anniversary patterns damaged down by banking pairs below, and to accept reports from this analyst, sign adult for Christopher’s distribution list.
The commencement of a month warrants a examination of a anniversary patterns that have shabby forex markets over a past several years. For March, as we did for all of 2016 and so distant in 2017, we have expanded a concentration on a duration of 1997 to 2016 in approval of a elaborating attribute between mercantile data, executive banks, and financial markets.
The longer regard duration captures several predicament events/periods that traders might find equivalent to events maturation today, even as a ramifications from Brexit are unclear: a Asian crisis; a US tech bubble; a US housing bubble; a tellurian commodity bubble; and prior rate hiking and rate slicing cycles, from a vital executive banks, during times normal (pre-2008) or unusual (post-2008). By augmenting a representation distance to 20 years, we trust a statistical fortitude of a estimates will have increasing relations to utilizing a shorter time-frame/smaller representation size.
Forex Seasonality in Euro (via EURUSD)
March is a neutral month for EUR/USD, from a seasonality perspective, due to a miss of transparent trend over a past 20-years. The span has separate time uniformly between gains and waste in March, and a normal opening was usually +14-pips per month. EUR/USD gained in Mar 2016, after carrying unheeded in any of a 3 prior Marches.
Forex Seasonality in British Pound (via GBPUSD)
March is a neutral month for GBP/USD, from a seasonality perspective, due to a unsuitable opening metrics. The span has appreciated 55% of a time in Mar over a past 20-years, though a normal opening during this time support was -32-pips per month. GBP/USD had a best Mar during a regard duration in Mar 2016, after a misfortune opening ever for a third month of a year during Mar 2015.
Forex Seasonality in Japanese Yen (via USDJPY)
March is a bullish month for USD/JPY, from a seasonality perspective. The span has rallied 60% of a time in March over a past 20-years, and a normal performance during this time support was +91-pips per month. USD/JPY mislaid belligerent in Mar 2016 after rallying any year going behind to 2009.
Forex Seasonality in Australian Dollar (via AUDUSD)
March is a slightly bullish month for AUD/USD, from a seasonality perspective, due to a inconsistent opening metrics long-term (the span has separate time uniformly between gains and waste during a regard period), and a some-more new trend of gains in a short-term (AUD/USD has rallied in 6 of a past 8 Marches).The pair’s normal performance during this time support was +26-pips per month.
Forex Seasonality in DXY Index
From a seasonality perspective, Mar is a neutral month for a DXY Index. The total tracker of greenback value has separate time uniformly between gains and waste in March, adding +0.18-points per month during that timeframe. The DXY Index had gained belligerent any Mar from 2012 to 2015, before posting a misfortune Mar ever in 2016.
Forex Seasonality in New Zealand Dollar (via NZDUSD)
March is a neutral month, from a seasonality perspective, for NZD/USD. The span has spent a slight infancy of a time trade reduce in Mar over a past 20 years (55%), and a normal opening during this time support was usually +9-pips per month. NZD/USD has rallied in 6 of a 8 Marches given a financial crisis.
Forex Seasonality in Canadian Dollar (via USDCAD)
March is a bearish month for USD/CADfrom a seasonality perspective. The span has unheeded 70% of a time in Mar over a past 20-years, and a normal opening during this time support is -34-pips per month . Recently, USD/CAD has mislaid belligerent in 3 of a past 4 years, with a misfortune opening of a past 20-years entrance in Mar 2015.
Forex Seasonality in Swiss Franc (via USDCHF)
From a seasonality perspective, Mar is a neutral month for USD/CHF, due to a unsuitable opening during a final 20-years. The span has unheeded 60% of a time in Mar over a past 20-years, though a normal opening during this time support was +18-pips per month. Recently, USD/CHF had a second-worst Mar during a regard duration in 2016 after posting 3 uninterrupted years of gains (2013 to 2015).
Seasonality in SP 500
March is typically a bullish month for a SP 500, from a seasonality perspective, a second-best month of a year. The index has spent a infancy of a time gaining belligerent in Mar over a past-20 years, with a month producing an normal opening of +23.65-points. Mar has constructed gains in 4 of a past 5 years, with a second-best Mar during a opening duration entrance in 2016.
Seasonality in Gold
From a seasonality perspective, Mar is a bearish month for Gold, due to a unchanging opening metrics. Gold has unheeded 70% of a time in Mar over a past 20-years, and a normal opening during this time support was -$7.93/oz per month. Recently, Gold has posted waste in 3 true years, and has usually gained belligerent twice (2011 and 2013) given 2007.
Read more: DXY Index Clears Feb Highs as Mar Hike Odds Surge
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist
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