Now Even Citi and Goldman are Highly Bullish on Copper

In 2016, Chinese copper demand grew strongly at 3-7%, compared to consensus expectations of 1-2% at the start of the year. Looking forward, we see demand slightly moderating, but to a still-solid 3-4%. Mine supply is expected to slow notably, from 3.2%YoY in 2016E to 1.1% in 2017E, thus creating the first supply deficit since 2011. On our forecasts, copper prices will US$2.53/2.76/3.03 per lb in 2017/18/19E, respectively, or US$5,575/6,075/6,675 in US$/t terms.

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