NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi Testing Support during Fresh Yearly Lows

The New Zealand Dollar has depressed some-more than 3% from a monthly highs with a mangle of a Jun opening-range changeable a concentration toward a late-month low in NZD/USD. That said, a decrease unsuccessful to reason a mangle subsequent a May lows with a miscarry off connection support melancholy a incomparable liberation in in price. These are a updated targets invalidations levels that matter for NZD/USD in a near-term.

NZD/USD Daily Price Chart

NZD/USD Daily Price Chart

Technical Outlook: In this week’s Technical Perspective on the New Zealand Dollar, we highlighted a relapse in Kiwi while observant that, “price is now coming levels support targets of seductiveness that could miscarry this decrease in a near-term.” The initial segment is tangible by 6811/28 where a 2016 open and a 2017 low-day tighten intersect on a 50-line of a descending pitchfork formation fluctuating off a 2017 2018 highs- cost is responding to this threshold today.

Daily insurgency stands during a highlighted trendline connection around ~6940s with bearish cancellation adult during a monthly open during 6999– a crack there would be indispensable to advise a some-more poignant low is in place for NZD/USD. A downside mangle / daily tighten subsequent this support section targets successive objectives during a 2017 lows during 6780 corroborated by a 61.8% retracement of a 2015 allege during 6716.

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NZD/USD 120min Price Chart

NZD/USD Price Chart - 240min

Notes: A closer demeanour during NZD/USD cost movement highlights today’s annulment off support with a allege now eyeing initial insurgency during a 23.6% retracement during 6881. IF Kiwi is streamer higher, demeanour for support to reason forward of a May lows during 6850 with a topside crack targeting successive insurgency objectives during 6915/20 and 6944 (area of seductiveness for probable depletion if reached).

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Bottom line: The near-term risk is for a incomparable liberation on this miscarry with a concentration aloft while above 6850. Ultimately a incomparable liberation should offer some-more auspicious brief entries nearby constructional resistance. From a trade standpoint, I’ll preference vanishing debility while above today’s low targeting a pierce behind towards former a underside of a May trendline. Keep in mind a RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) seductiveness rate preference is on daub subsequent week alongside an uptick in pivotal US information releases.

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NZD/USD IG Client Positioning

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

  • A outline of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD- a ratio stands during +1.99 (66.5% of traders are long) –bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long given April 22nd; cost has changed 6.7% reduce given then
  • Long positions are 6.7% aloft than yesterday and 1.7% aloft from final week
  • Short positions are7.9% aloft than yesterday and 29.8% reduce from final week
  • We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices might continue to fall. Yet traders are reduction net-long than yesterday but some-more net-long from final week and the multiple of stream positioning and new changes gives us a serve churned NZD/USD trade bias from a view standpoint.

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Relevant NZD/USD Data Releases

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– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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