NZD/USD Rally Unravels Ahead of Yellen Testimony

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Talking Points

NZD/USD Daily

NZD/USD Daily Chart

Technical Outlook:Last month we highlighted a multi-year trendline insurgency in NZDUSD as cost was imprinting ongoing dissimilarity in momentum. It’s taken scarcely dual weeks for a span to finally spin over (weakest performer vs a USD today) with a decrease now coming initial support targets during a 50-line / Jun pitch lows during 7185-7200.

Key insurgency broader bearish cancellation is now lowered to a 2017 high-day annulment tighten during 7301 with a mangle reduce targeting 7130/44 a 200DMA that converges on a median-line around 7100– both areas of seductiveness for near-term exhaustion.

NZD/USD 240min

NZD/USD 240min Chart

Notes: A closer demeanour during a 240min draft highlights a near-term forward pitchfork formation fluctuating off a Jun highs with a top together concentration on a weekly opening operation now during 7283– evident concentration is reduce next this level. Interim insurgency now 7244 corroborated by 7262.

Initial support objectives are eyed along a 50-line (currently ~7195) corroborated closely by down-slope support during 7170 a 38.2% retracement during 7144. From a trade standpoint I’ll preference vanishing strength sub-7262 streamer into a finish of a week. Keep in mind a we’re flattering light on New Zealand information this week so demeanour for a dollar to expostulate cost movement with Janet Yellen’s semi-annual financial process testimony before association expected to fuel combined sensitivity in a USD crosses.

NZD/USD Sentiment

  • A outline of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-short NZD/USD- a ratio stands during -5.01 (16.6% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Retail has been net-short since May 24th; cost has changed 3.9% higher given then
  • Long positions are 31.8% aloft than yesterday and 7.6% higher from final week
  • Short positions are 1.0% lower than yesterday and unvaried from final week
  • We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment,and a fact traders are net-short suggests AUDUSD prices might continue to rise. That said, positioning is less net-short than yesterday compared with final week and a recent changes in view advise that a stream NZDUSD cost trend might shortly retreat reduce notwithstanding a fact traders sojourn net-short.
  • Bottom line: demeanour for a continued build in prolonged positioning / pleat in brief bearing to serve support a annulment scenario.

What to demeanour for in NZD/USD retail positioning – Click here to learn more!

Relevant Data Releases

NZD/USD Economic Docket

Other Setups in Play:

– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or hit him during mboutros@dailyfx.com.

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