NZD/USD Rally Vulnerable Ahead of 7300- New Zealand CPI on Tap

Talking Points

  • NZD/USD hurdles resistance into 7300 forward of New Zealand CPI
  • Updated targets cancellation levels
  • Looking for some-more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 Trading Guides. Join Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinars on Mondays at 13:30GMT (8:30ET)



Technical Outlook: Kiwi is adult some-more than 4.6% year-to-date with a convene now eyeing pivotal technical insurgency during 7292/96 heading into tonight’s New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI). This spin is tangible by a Mar 2015 low-day tighten a Jul high-day tighten and converges on former channel support over a subsequent few days. The evident long-bias is during risk while next this threshold.

NZDUSD 120min

NZD/USD 120min

Notes: A closer demeanour during cost movement shows Kiwi trade within a proportions of an descending pitchfork arrangement fluctuating off a Dec lows with a overnight stretch-high tagging a top parallel. We still could see some serve upside from here though a risk for a near-term depletion prevails while next 7292/96. A mangle next a median-line targets 7186 a reduce together / weekly open during 7162. Ultimately a mangle next this segment would be indispensable to advise a some-more poignant spin is underway.

A convene leading 7300 would nullify a annulment play with such a unfolding targeting 7352 7400. Keep in mind acceleration is approaching to uptick to 1.2% y/y, adult from only 0.4% y/y in Q3 and would be a top imitation given Jun of 2014. From a trade standpoint, streamer into a recover we would be looking for depletion while next 7300.

NZD/USD Rally Vulnerable Ahead of 7300- New Zealand CPI on Tap

  • A outline of a DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are brief NZD/USD – a ratio stands during -1.64 (38% of traders are long)- bullish reading
  • Long positions are 2.6% aloft than yesterday and 13.6% above levels seen final week
  • Short positions are 2.4% reduce than yesterday though 1.1% above levels seen final week
  • Open seductiveness is 0.6% reduce than yesterday though stays 4.3% above a monthly normal
  • The stream energetic offers a churned vigilance though it’s value observant that augmenting prolonged positions / squeezing in a SSI ratio from new Jan extremes (-1.88) advise that a evident allege is exposed near-term, generally as cost approaches technical resistance.

Relevant Data Releases

NZD/USD Rally Vulnerable Ahead of 7300- New Zealand CPI on Tap

Looking for trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s 2017 1Q Projections

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—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex hit him during or Click Here to be combined to his email placement list.

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