Post-RBA AUD/USD Rebound Faces Range Resistance

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD trades on a firmer balance as a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) appears to be changing a tune, and a sell rate now stands during risk of melancholy a operation firm cost movement carried over from a prior month as it fast approaches a July-high (0.7484).

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Post-RBA AUD/USD Rebound Faces Range Resistance

Image of daily change for AUDUSD

It seems as yet a RBA is in no rush to lift a executive money rate (OCR) off of a record-low as ‘once-off declines in some administered prices in a Sep entertain are approaching to outcome in title acceleration in 2018 being a small reduce than progressing expected,’ and a executive bank looks staid to keep a stream process during a subsequent assembly on Sep 4 as ‘the low spin of seductiveness rates is stability to support a Australian economy.

However, a new remarks from Governor Philip Lowe Co. advise a executive bank will gradually change a forward-guidance for financial process as ‘the executive foresee is for acceleration to be aloft in 2019 and 2020 than it is currently,’ and a executive bank might start to strike a hawkish tinge after this year as ‘the rate of salary enlargement appears to have troughed and there are increasing reports of skills shortages in some areas.’

In turn, Governor Lowe Co. might ready Australian households and businesses for a rate-hike in 2019 as ‘further swell in shortening stagnation and carrying acceleration lapse to aim is expected,’ with courtesy now branch to a RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy scheduled for Aug 10 as marketplace participants digest a teenager adjustments in a mercantile outlook.

Until then, AUD/USD might continue to connect as it binds a monthly opening operation from July, with a sell rate during risk of creation a run during final month’s high (0.7484) amid a unsuccessful try to exam a July-low (0.7311).

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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  • Keep in mind, broader opinion for AUD/USD stays slanted to a downside as cost a Relative Strength Index (RSI) lane a downward trends from progressing this year, with a near-term opinion for AUD/USD capped by a Fibonacci overlie around 0.7500 (50% retracement) to 0.7530 (38.2% expansion).
  • Near-term support comes in around 0.7320 (50% expansion) to 0.7340 (61.8% retracement), with a break/close subsequent a settled segment opening adult a subsequent downside aim around 0.7180 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7230 (61.8% expansion).

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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