Strong New Zealand Retail Sales Report to Fuel NZD/USD Rebound

New Zealand Retail Sales to Increase for Sixth Consecutive Quarter.

Will a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Continue to Change Its Tune for Monetary Policy?

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Trading a News: New Zealand Retail Sales ex. Inflation

NZD/USD might theatre a incomparable liberation forward of a weekend as New Zealand Retail Sales are projected to boost another 1.0% during a final three-months of 2016.

What’s Expected:

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Why Is This Event Important:

Signs of stronger expenditure might inspire a Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to dump a discreet tinge as ‘the liberation in commodity prices and some-more certain business and consumer view in modernized economies have softened a tellurian outlook,’ and a executive bank might uncover a larger eagerness to gradually pierce divided from a accommodative process position as ‘longer-term acceleration expectations sojourn well-anchored during around 2 percent.’ With Governor Graeme Wheeler scheduled to step down in September, a executive bank might change a process opinion forward of a transition, though a RBNZ might continue to pursue a wait-and-see proceed as ‘numerous uncertainties remain, quite in honour of a general outlook, and process might need to adjust accordingly.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

The pickup in private-sector lending interconnected with a ongoing alleviation in a labor marketplace might beget a clever sell sales print, and a certain enlargement might hint a bullish greeting in a New Zealand dollar as it boosts interest-rate expectations.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

However, diseased salary enlargement accompanied by gummy acceleration might pull New Zealand households to scale behind on spending, and a gloomy sales news might hint near-term headwinds for a kiwi as it puts vigour on a executive bank to serve support a genuine economy.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish NZD Trade: Private Spending Climbs 1.0% or Greater

  • Need a green, five-minute candle following a recover to cruise a prolonged NZD/USD position.
  • If marketplace greeting favors a bullish kiwi trade, buy NZD/USD with dual apart position.
  • Set stop during a near-by pitch low/reasonable stretch from cost; during slightest 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entrance on remaining position once initial aim is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish NZD Trade: 4Q New Zealand Retail Sales Disappoints

  • Need a red, five-minute candle to preference a brief NZD/USD trade.
  • Implement same plan as a bullish New Zealand dollar trade, only in reverse.

If you’re looking for trade ideas, check out a Trading Guides

Potential Price Targets For The Release


NZD/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Broader opinion for NZD/USD stays slanted to a downside as cost and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue to lane a bearish trends carried over from a prior year, though a miss of movement to break/close next a Fibonacci overlie around 0.7100 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7120 (50% retracement) might furnish range-bound conditions in a days forward as a span struggles to pull behind above the former-support around 0.7240 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7270 (78.6% retracement).
  • Interim Resistance: 0.7520 (50% retracement) to 0.7530 (78.6% retracement)
  • Interim Support: 0.6840 (38.2% retracement) to 0.6870 (50% retracement)

Check out a short-term technical levels that matter for EUR/NZD streamer into a report!

Impact that a New Zealand Retail Sales news has had on NZD/USD during a final release

3Q 2016 New Zealand Retail Sales ex. Inflation

NZD/USD 10-Minute


New Zealand Retail Sales increasing 0.9% in a third-quarter after expanding a revised 2.2% during a three-months by June, with nine of a 15 industries reporting aloft sales. A deeper demeanour during a total showed a 1.2% decrease in direct for clothing/footwear, with sales for furniture/housewares squeezing 1.0% during a same period, while direct for engine car and tools increasing another 3.4% after rising 2.9% in a second-quarter. The New Zealand dollar edged aloft following a in-line print, though a pierce was short-lived, with a span finale a day during 0.7007.

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

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