This Signal Predicts a Major Bull Market Move in Gold Prices

Today, gold prices broke a nearly six year-long downward sloping trend line that goes back to its all-time high of $1921 in August of 2011. Gold has not managed to cross above this trend line, currently at around $1280, since then, although it has come close a number of times including as recently as last April.

Today’s breach of this trend line is likely significant; historically, breaking above a five year long downward sloping trend line has signaled major bull market moves in gold prices (30% or more) including 2001, 1993 and 1985.

One of the better indicators for gold prices is the ratio of the price of the U.S. 30 year Treasury bond to the US Dollar Index. Gold rises and falls with this ratio because it encapsulates two important factors driving gold prices. When the dollar is falling while the bond is rising (and rates are falling), as we see currently, gold tends to rise. A strengthening dollar and rising yields—as we saw after the Trump election—generate a headwind for gold. Here is a one year chart of the daily ratio. The red line is the ratio and the black line is the gold price.

U.S Treasury Bond and U.S. Dollar

A five year weekly chart shows that the correlations have remained strong over an extended period.

U.S Treasury Bond and U.S. Dollar Five Year

The next confirming step of a break out would be to see gold stocks outperform gold prices. Gold stocks have been conspicuous non-performers of late; as gold has stealthily risen, the gold stocks have been very lethargic, as noted below in this daily one year chart of the ratio of the HUI gold stock index to the gold price.

HUI and Gold

 

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