U.S. GDP Report: Slowing Core PCE to Curb EUR/USD Weakness

U.S. GDP to Expand Annualized 2.6%- Fastest Pace of Growth Since 3Q 2016.

Core PCE to Narrow to 0.7% Per Annum- Lowest Reading Since 1Q 2009.

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Trading a News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)


EUR/USD might continue to give behind a allege from progressing this month as a U.S. 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news is approaching to uncover a pickup in a enlargement rate.

Why Is This Event Important:

However, a element slack in a core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), a Fed’s elite sign for inflation, might shroud an uptick in GDP as a executive bank continues to note ‘market-based measures of acceleration remuneration sojourn low; survey-based measures of longer-term acceleration expectations are small changed, on balance.’ Even yet a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ‘expects to start implementing a change piece normalization module comparatively soon,’ loss expectations for a Dec rate-hike might continue to drag on a greenback generally as Chair Janet Yellen warns ‘the sovereign supports rate would not have to arise all that most serve to get to a neutral process stance.

Impact that the U.S. GDP report has had on EUR/USD during a prior quarter

1Q 2017 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

EUR/USD 15-Minute


DailyFX 3Q Forecasts Are Now Available

The U.S. economy grew an annualized 0.7% in a initial three-months of 2017, while a sign for domicile expenditure increasing 0.3% during a same duration amid forecasts for a 0.9% rise. Nevertheless, a core Personal Consumption Expenditure, a Fed’s elite sign for inflation, climbed to 2.0% per annum to symbol a fastest gait of enlargement given a first-quarter of 2016. Despite a below-forecast GDP print, a U.S. dollar gained belligerent amid signs of faster cost growth, with EUR/USD dipping subsequent a 1.0900 hoop to finish a day during 1.0898.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish USD Trade: GDP, Core PCE Exceed Market Expectations

  • Need a red, five-minute candle follow a information prints to cruise a brief EUR/USD position.
  • If a marketplace greeting favors a bullish dollar position, brief EUR/USD with dual apart lots.
  • Set stop during a near-by pitch high/reasonable stretch from entry; demeanour for during slightest 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial aim is met, set reasonable limit.

Bearish USD Trade: Slowing Inflation Curbs Bets for Dec Fed Rate-Hike.

  • Need a green, five-minute EUR/USD candle to cruise a brief dollar position.
  • Implement a same proceed as a bullish dollar position, only in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart – Created Using Trading View

  • Keep in mind a broader opinion for EUR/USD stays constructive following a market greeting to a FOMC Jul seductiveness rate decision, with a span initiating a array of higher-highs, though a sell rate might continue to lift behind from a uninformed 2017-high (1.1777) as a Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be entrance off of overbought territory.
  • Failure to reason above a 1.1670 (78.6% expansion) jump might coax a pierce behind towards a 1.1580 (100% expansion) region, with a subsequent downside area of seductiveness entrance in around 1.1480 (78.6% expansion) followed by a 1.1400 (61.8% expansion) handle.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1810 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1860 (161.8% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.0980 (50% retracement) to 1.1020 (50% expansion)

EUR/USD Sentiment

EUR/USD Sentiment

Track Retail Sentiment with a New Gauge Developed by DailyFX Based on Trader Positioning

Retail merchant information shows 29.6% of traders are net-long EUR/USD with a ratio of traders brief to prolonged during 2.38 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short given April 18 when EUR/USD traded nearby 1.06665; cost has changed 9.3% aloft given then. The series of traders net-long is 11.2% aloft than yesterday and 8.2% aloft from final week, while a series of traders net-short is 14.8% reduce than yesterday and 5.3% reduce from final week.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To hit David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter during @DavidJSong.

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