US Dollar Falls Through Support, EUR/USD to post-ECB Highs After NFP

Talking Points:

– This morning’s NFP news was rather of a churned bag, yet this seemed to do small to assistance US Dollar bulls as DXY has continued a Q3 skirmish next support. The expected law-breaker here was lagging Average Hourly Earnings within this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, entrance in during .2% contra a .3% expectation.

Noticeable so distant in a new entertain is a lapse of EUR/USD strength, and a span is now trade during a uninformed post-ECB high. Prices in a span have been in a unchanging bullish settlement over a past week, and this resembles a identical unfolding from final year around a ECB’s Oct rate decision. When a European Central Bank extended impulse into 2018, EUR/USD forsaken next support and remained bearish for about dual weeks. But this was shortly equivalent by a impassioned GDP news out of Germany, and prices were pulling 1.2500 in short-order. Might we be headed for a identical scenario? European acceleration came-in during a one-year high in June, and if it keeps adult this pace, a ECB might have a formidable time sitting on stream rates ‘at slightest by a summer of 2019.’

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NFP as a Mixed Bag, USD Bears Push Below Key Support

This morning’s NFP repot was rather of a churned bag. While a title series kick expectations, a stagnation rate and Average Hourly Earnings apportionment of a news did not. Given a heated concentration that’s been paid towards acceleration out a US of recent, that skip in AHE expected took a substantial apportionment of marketplace participants’ courtesy around a release, and a net response so distant has been a deeper dump in a US Dollar as a banking continues a Q3 sell-off.

US Dollar around ‘DXY’ Four-Hour Price Chart: Support Break to Three-Week, post-ECB Lows

US Dollar Four Hour Price Chart USD

Chart prepared by James Stanley

At this stage, a US Dollar is contrast a 23.6% retracement of a bullish pierce that began in Q2. This does keep a US Dollar in a bullish spot, yet given a gait with that waste have shown so distant in a uninformed quarter, traders will expected wish to move-forward with support or buy a drop strategies with impassioned caution. There is a deeper support turn that could be a bit some-more interesting, however, and this runs around a Jun swing-lows of 93.20 in DXY. This area of before pitch support runs really closely to a 38.2% retracement of a Q2 bullish move.

US Dollar around ‘DXY’ Four-Hour Chart: Deeper Support Potential Around Jun Swing-Lows

US Dollar usd 4 hour cost chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

As mentioned earlier, acceleration in a US has turn rather of a pull indicate to US Dollar price action, and this can expected be drawn-back to Europe for a deeper explanation, that we’ll try to embark on a small later. But of note is a fact that US acceleration stays clever and continues to rise. Last month saw May acceleration numbers imitation during 2.8%, stability a trend that started over a year ago when June, 2017 acceleration came-in during 1.6%.

US Inflation during 2.8% in a Month of May

US acceleration rate by month

Chart prepared by James Stanley

This is a expected writer as to because a Dollar is descending notwithstanding a title series kick in this morning’s report. Average Hourly Earnings came in during .2% contra an expectancy of .3%, and this creates for a skip on a annualized number, copy during 2.7% contra an expectancy of 2.8%. Wage gains are suspicion of as a predecessor to inflationary pressures, and with a Fed remaining steadfastly hawkish, this does keep them in-line to continue with their rate travel skeleton in a second-half of this year.

Why Might USD Drop on Stronger Inflation and a Hawkish Fed?

Because rates are endangered with destiny seductiveness rate movements, and after a ECB’s rate preference in mid-June, expectations were really low for any hawkish moves out a European Central Bank. Deductively, this helped to expostulate collateral flows into a US and a US Dollar as a Fed was one of a few games in city for near-term rate hikes. Meanwhile, a Fed remained steadfastly hawkish as US acceleration had remained strong, and this serve contributed to that assertive sell-off in EUR/USD in Q2 as dissimilarity between a dual Central Banks seemed to be widening.

But – some-more recently, European acceleration has come behind to life, and we saw Euro-Zone acceleration for a month of Jun imitation during a ECB’s aim of 2% for a initial time in over a year. This has brought questions to either a ECB will be means to lay on their stream rates ‘at slightest by a summer of 2019,’ and this has helped to move EUR/USD back-above 1.1700.

Euro-Zone Inflation Comes Back to Life, Hits ECB’s 2% Target in Jun for First Time in Over a Year

Euro-Zone CPI monthly given July, 2017

Chart prepared by James Stanley

At this stage, EUR/USD is trade during a uninformed post-ECB high, and contrast above a pivotal territory of support/resistance that exists from 1.1685-1.1736. Just above this territory is another area of seductiveness that runs from 1.1821-1.1855, and there’s a pardonable evidence for bearish delay until this territory is taken-out. But – if we do see a continued bullish response as we trade deeper into Q3, a doorway is non-stop for a re-test of 1.2000 and maybe even 1.2167 in EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart: Testing Trend-Line Resistance as Q3 Comeback Continues

eur/usd 4 hour cost chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Growing Potential for EUR/USD Reversal as we Trade into Q3

We’ve looked during this a integrate of times during a webinars this week, first on Tuesday and then again yesterday; yet a unfolding that we have here compares good to what happened in EUR/USD in Q4 of final year.

The Euro was clever from Apr to September, really most driven by a awaiting of a ECB a) exiting impulse and afterwards b) hiking rates. This was such a clever thesis that even with a FOMC hiking rates 4 times in 2017, a Euro continued to uncover substantial strength opposite USD. This was rather equivalent in October, however, when a ECB extended their impulse module into 2018. This helped EUR/USD to finally break-below a pivotal support zone, a same that is now assisting to set resistance, and a span remained underneath for about dual weeks with hints of bearish cost action.

This was equivalent a brief two-weeks later. A impassioned German GDP news came-out, and in short-order Euro bulls had returned to a party, and prices were behind above a support territory forward of another run towards uninformed highs during 1.2500.

EUR/USD Daily: October, 2017 ECB Brings Two Weeks of Weakness, Soon Offset by Return of Strength

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

More recently, a bearish thesis grown in a Euro in Q2 as driven by a multiple of a) weaker European information b) rising domestic risk in Italy and afterwards Germany and c) a dovish ECB in response to a and b. Prices once again slid next this pivotal territory of support around that ECB rate decision, yet sellers were incompetent to make any belligerent next a before May swing-low. As European information has started to uncover initial signs of alleviation around inflation, prices have re-engaged above support, and buyers are stability to pull higher.

So, even yet a Fed is more-hawkish than a ECB and we’re expected going to be saying some-more near-term rate hikes out of a Fed than a ECB – this does not obviate EUR/USD strength, most as we saw final year. Instead, concentration on cost action, and if bulls are so assured that they’re peaceful to trade by a Jun swing-high, a doorway re-opens for topside strategies in a singular banking as we trade deeper into 2018.

EUR/USD Daily Chart: Euro Weakness Below Support Short-Lived, Redux of October, 2017?

eurusd eur/usd daily cost chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To review more:

Are we looking for longer-term research on a U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q1 have a territory for any vital currency, and we also offer a engorgement of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay adult with near-term positioning around a IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

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— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

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