US Dollar Outlook for a May FOMC Meeting

Talking Points:

– The FOMC meets currently during 14 EDT/18 GMT and while no rate pierce is expected, a process matter should have a hawkish hue.

– The DXY Index has rallied into a pivotal 92.50/65 insurgency section constructed by a Nov 2017 pitch lows and Jan 2018 pitch highs.

Retail traders are net-long EUR/USD for a initial time given Apr 6, a contrarian sell signal.

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The US Dollar (via a DXY Index) has seen a nearby two-week convene case during a rope of pivotal resistance, a 92.50/65 section constructed by a Nov 2017 pitch lows and Jan 2018 pitch highs. The pause, entrance only forward of a May FOMC statement, is to be expected, as sensitivity and directional transformation in FX markets typically cools off in a run-up to a executive bank meeting.

While a FOMC preference currently will expected furnish no change in rates, that doesn’t meant that traders will be sitting on their hands for long.Indeed, as a non-SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) and a non-press discussion month, a contingency of a process change in May are low to start with.

But given new changes in acceleration – title CPI and core CPI are above a Fed’s medium-term aim of +2% (at +2.4% and +2.1% y/y, respectively) and core PCE (+1.9% y/y) is not that distant behind – it seems rarely expected that a FOMC will make pointed shifts in a denunciation in a process matter to vigilance additional tightening stairs in a entrance months.

To this end, Fed supports futures are now pricing in 25-bps rate hikes in Jun (94% pragmatic probability), Sep (78%), and Dec (54%). While a Dec rate travel is a slightest certain of a three, ongoing acceleration in acceleration total to keep a Fed on a trail of gradually lifting rates during assembly that coincide with a recover of new Summary of Economic Projections.

Table 1: Fed Rate Hike Expectations (May 2, 2018)

US Dollar Outlook for a May FOMC Meeting

The pierce aloft in both yields and rate expectations have proven a manly matter for a US Dollar, that might have indeed only bottomed out in a near-term. An different conduct and shoulders settlement that took figure in Mar and early-April pennyless out to a topside in mid-April, and a DXY Index has postulated a pierce behind above 91.01, a 2017 low and transparent insurgency during attempts aloft in mid-January and early-March. Likewise, cost is above a forward trendline from a March, April, November, and Dec 2017 pitch highs.

Price Chart 1: DXY Index Daily Timeframe (December 2016 to Apr 2018)

US Dollar Outlook for a May FOMC Meeting

With US Dollar bullish movement picking adult a to a topside – cost is above a daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMAs in consecutive order, while both MACD and Slow Stochastics are trending aloft – a bottom opinion for a US Dollar during benefaction time is to buy dips. Accordingly, even if a FOMC preference currently produces a teenager USD pullback, it’s a pullback that traders should be peaceful to get prolonged into presumption a FOMC continues to vigilance adult to 3 rate hikes are entrance in 2018.

See a above video for technical considerations in a DXY Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/ZAR, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Gold, and a SP 500.

Read more: US Dollar Rally Continues to Build, Nine Gains in 11 Days

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— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

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