USD/CAD Looks to BOC to Catalyze Range Break

Talking Points:

– BOC travel contingency are subsequent 20% for today, around 35% for January, and above 75% for January. The marketplace might be too dovish; a risk currently is for a some-more hawkish BOC.

– USD/CAD’s two-month operation between 1.2665 and 1.2910 looks prepared to mangle to a downside, with a double tip aim of 1.2420.

Retail merchant sentiment suggests churned trade conditions in a US Dollar by a initial full week of December.

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The US Dollar is stability to wander around, with a DXY Index subsequent a Oct 26 pitch low of 93.48, that has clearly served as insurgency given a relapse on Nov 22. While a tighten by pronounced turn would also paint a bullish mangle above a daily 21-EMA, one could make an evidence that a US Dollar was on plain balance streamer into a center of a month.

Yet given a news of arriving eventuality risk, one has to be heedful of any short-term gains that emerge for a US Dollar. While a Nov US Nonfarm Payrolls news this Friday is approaching to be a plain one (forecasts call for +197K jobs combined and a stagnation rate to stay on reason during 4.1%), it shouldn’t have a element impact on what a Federal Reserve does subsequent week during their final process assembly of a year: Fed supports have been pricing in a 100% possibility of a 25-bps rate travel in Dec given Oct 26.

Given that acceleration readings of new have disappointed, there seems to be a clever possibility that a FOMC revises reduce a 2018 acceleration expectations, and thus, a slip trail for seductiveness rates. This won’t warn a market, as marketplace expectations have deviated utterly neatly from a FOMC’s possess (a problem for a US Dollar, though not for US equity markets).

While there is still some time for cost movement to rise between now and subsequent Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, a ubiquitous thought is to demeanour for US Dollar brief setups forward of subsequent week. One such span that looks primed for a large pierce is USD/CAD, sitting during support of a two-month operation before a Bank of Canada meets after today.

Chart 1: USD/CAD Daily Timeframe (July to Dec 2017)

USD/CAD Looks to BOC to Catalyze Range Break

The Canadian Dollar has had a flighty 2017, and many of it has to do with pricing around intensity BOC process decisions. In early-June, there was reduction than a 10% possibility of a rate travel for a rest of 2017. By mid-July, not usually had one rate travel indeed been priced-in – and a BOC did travel – though a second travel was being priced-in for a finish of a year. Eventually, this transpired in Sep with markets pricing a third travel in for 2017. This hawkish notice valid to be overdone, with a market-implied contingency of a BOC travel this week now subsequent 20%.

Looking down a calendar, Mar 2018 comes in as a many expected duration for a subsequent rate travel (75% chance). As such, even if a BOC does not travel this week, expectations are high that they will continue to prep markets for serve process tightening in a months ahead.

Accordingly, a pierce subsequent operation support of 1.2665 would trigger a double tip arrangement (measured between 1.2665 and 1.2910) indicating to an contingent decrease towards 1.2420 over a entrance weeks. With USD/CAD trade subsequent a daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMAs, as good as with MACD and Stochastics trending lower, a pairs seems primed for a relapse if only given a tiny ‘push’ – a some-more hawkish BOC currently would do a trick.

Chart 2: USD/CAD IG Client Sentiment Index (June to Dec 2017)

USD/CAD Looks to BOC to Catalyze Range Break

USD/CAD: Retail merchant information shows 50.0% of traders are net-long with a ratio of traders prolonged to brief during 1.0 to 1. The series of traders net-long is 2.8% reduce than yesterday and 15.4% aloft from final week, while a series of traders net-short is 6.3% aloft than yesterday and 22.3% reduce from final week. We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices might continue to fall.

See a above video for technical considerations in a DXY Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and EUR/GBP.

Read more: DXY Index Finds Little Follow-Through After Weekly Gap Open

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

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