– U.S. Consumer Confidence to Narrow for First Time Since June.
– Conference Board Survey Has Held Above 100-Threshold Since Jul 2016.
Trading a News: U.S. Consumer Confidence
A downtick in a U.S. Consumer Confidence consult might hint uninformed 2017-highs in EUR/USD as churned developments entrance out of a genuine economy dampens bets for an approaching Fed rate-hike.
Why Is This Event Important:
Narrowing expectations for aloft borrowing-costs might continue to moderate a seductiveness of a U.S. dollar as Fed Fund Futures now prominence a 40% luck for a pierce in December. In turn, a greenback might continue to vaunt a bearish function following a Sep assembly generally if Chair Janet Yellen and Co. plan a some-more shoal trail for a benchmark seductiveness rate.
Nevertheless, a FOMC might start to unpack a change piece in an bid to negate a debility in U.S. yields, and a preset march to breeze down a asset-purchases might corrupt a bearish view surrounding a dollar as a other vital executive banks continue to embark on their easing programs.
Impact that the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey has had on EUR/USD during a last print
July 2017 U.S. Consumer Confidence
EUR/USD 10-Minute Chart
The Conference Board’s U.S. Consumer Confidence consult suddenly climbed to 121.1 from a revised 117.3 in Jun to symbol a second-highest reading for a year. Nevertheless, a deeper demeanour during a news showed 12-month acceleration expectations sitting during a 2017-low, with a readying holding solid during an annualized 4.6% for a second month in July. The U.S. dollar gained belligerent following a pickup in domicile sentiment, with EUR/USD struggling to reason above a 1.1700 hoop as a span finished a day during 1.1645.
How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)
Bearish USD Trade: Conference Board Survey Narrows in August
- Need a green, five-minute candle following a consult to preference a prolonged EUR/USD position.
- If a marketplace greeting favors a bearish dollar trade, buy EUR/USD with dual apart lots.
- Set stop during a near-by pitch low/reasonable stretch from entry; demeanour for during slightest 1:1 risk-to-reward.
- Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial aim is met, set reasonable limit.
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Household Sentiment Unexpectedly Improves for Second Month
- Need a red, five-minute EUR/USD candle to cruise a prolonged dollar position.
- Implement a same proceed as a bearish dollar trade, only in a conflicting direction.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EUR/USD Daily Chart
- Topside targets sojourn on a radar for EUR/USD as it breaks out of a slight operation and climbs to uninformed 2017-highs, while a Relative Strength Index (RSI) clears a bearish arrangement from progressing this month.
- May see a EUR/USD make a some-more suggestive try to replacement a opening from January-2015 (1.2000 down to 1.1955) as a bull-flag appears to be panning out, with a subsequent topside jump entrance in around 1.2130 (50% retracement).
- Keeping a tighten eye on a RSI as it comes adult opposite overbought territory, with a mangle above 70 lifting a risk for a serve allege in a euro-dollar sell rate as a bullish movement gathers pace.
- Interim Resistance: 1.1960 (38.2% retracement) to 1.2042 (July 2012-low)
- Interim Support: 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (61.8% expansion)
EUR/USD Retail Sentiment
Retail merchant information shows 24.1% of traders are net-long EUR/USD with a ratio of traders brief to prolonged during 3.15 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short given April 18 when EUR/USD traded nearby 1.08143; cost has changed 10.8% aloft given then. The series of traders net-long is 4.0% aloft than yesterday and 7.5% reduce from final week, while a series of traders net-short is 3.1% aloft than yesterday and 8.1% aloft from final week.
— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
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