Weekly Technical Perspective on EUR/USD, U.S. Bonds and Crude Oil

In this array we scale-back and take a demeanour during a broader technical design to benefit a bit some-more viewpoint on where cost is trade with honour to trend. Here are a pivotal technical levels that matter on a weekly charts streamer into a weekend.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: EUR/USD pennyless next connection slope support final month with a decrease violation next a yearly opening operation lows during 1.1916. Price is now coming connection support around 1.1709/45 where a 38.2% retracement of a late-2016 allege converges on a parallel of a widespread slope fluctuating of a Nov low (red). Ultimately a opinion stays weighted to a downside while next a yearly open though IF Euro is going to miscarry (at slightest in a short-term) this would be a good spot.

Bottom line: The evident EUR/USD decrease is during risk streamer into a 1.17-handle. Initial resistance stands behind during 1.1916 with a crack above a yearly open during 1.2005 indispensable to assuage serve downside pressure. That said, a mangle revoke from here would aim successive support objectives a 1.1616 where a 2016 high converges on a median-line. From a trade standpoint, this would be a good mark to revoke any short-exposure – we would need to see some convincing near-term cost movement before attempting a liberation play. Watch a weekly close.

EUR/USD IG Client Positioning

EUR/USD Client Sentiment

  • A outline of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long EURUSD- a ratio stands during +1.09 (52.2% of traders are long) – intensely diseased bearishreading
  • Retail has remained net-long given April 30th; cost has changed 2.7% revoke given then
  • Long positions are 5.4% revoke than yesterday and 4.1% revoke from final week
  • Short positions are 6.5% aloft than yesterday and 8.8% aloft from final week
  • We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices competence continue to fall. Yet traders are reduction net-long than yesterday and compared with final week and a recent changes in view advise that a stream EURUSD cost trend competence shortly retreat aloft notwithstanding a fact traders sojourn net-long.

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TNX Weekly Chart (10Yr Yields)

TNX Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Yields on a 10-year are violation by a vicious insurgency operation we’ve been tracking for months during 3.00/04– a segment tangible by a 2013 high-day tighten / pitch high and up-slope resistance. The crack validates a dermatitis of a multi-decade downtrend and keeps a concentration aloft while above this threshold. Subsequent topside objectives are eyed during 3.22 with a some-more poignant connection segment seen during 3.32/35. Key support and bullish cancellation now lifted to 2.83.

Bottom line: Don’t fight this- cost has privileged large insurgency with momentum still low in overbought domain and this thing could stretch. We’ll be on a surveillance for probable depletion on a widen into a aforementioned insurgency targets if reached.

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Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Crude Oil Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Crude oil prices are is contrast a mangle of BIG insurgency this week during 70.42-71.32 where a 100% prolongation of a 2016 allege and a 50% retracement of a 2011 decrease intersect on a median-line. This is possibly a fake break, or things are about to get unequivocally interesting! It’s value observant that we’ve been tracking a cost analog with a 2009 allege that suggests that wanton competence be exposed for a rather pointy pullback here from a timing standpoint.

Bottom line: Again here a weekly tighten will be important- Interim support rests during 66.18 with broader bullish cancellation now lifted to 59.94-60.18. A tighten above this pivotal focus (70.42-71.32) is indispensable to keep a evident allege viable with such a unfolding targeting a 2011 2012 lows during 74.94 and 77.26 respectively. From a trade standpoint, there’s zero to do here nonetheless if you’re not already prolonged and it competence be a good mark to start tightening adult protecting stops.

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Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or hit him during mboutros@dailyfx.com

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