Weekly Technical Perspective on S&P 500, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY

In this array we scale-back and take a demeanour during a broader technical design to benefit a bit some-more viewpoint on where we are in trend. Here are a pivotal levels that matter on a weekly charts for a SP 500, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY streamer into a open of a month / quarter. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth relapse of these setups and more.

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SPX500 Weekly Price Chart

SPX500 Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: Simplicity is key- Last month we highlighted key support in a SP 500 during the, “confluence of a 61.8% prolongation and a 200-day relocating normal around 2586/90.” A shifting together (red) of a widespread slope (blue) fluctuating off a Nov 2016 lows also converges on this segment and serve highlights a technical stress of this support zone. Price is contrast this threshold into a monthly open- demeanour for a wilful greeting early in a month.

Bottom Line: A mangle / weekly closebelow this vicious support connection risks estimable waste for a index with such a unfolding targeting a 52-week relocating normal around ~2550s corroborated by connection Fibonacci support during 2453/68. Interim insurgency stands with former pitchfork support ~2660 with a crack above a yearly high-day tighten during 2754 indispensable to assuage serve downside vigour (bearish invalidation).

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AUD/USD Weekly Price Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: The Australian Dollar has approached a long-term support confluence we’ve been tracking given a start of a year during 7612/37. This segment represents a vicious rhythm indicate for cost and IF damaged would risk a estimable sell-off in a Aussie. That said, we’re looking for signs of support this week with a crack above connection insurgency during 7750 indispensable to assuage serve downside pressure.

Bottom line: The evident short-bias is during risk streamer into 7612/37 and from a trade standpoint I’ll be looking for justification of a near-term low in this range. A mangle reduce would keep a concentration on successive support targets during 7481 and a 61.8% retracement of a 2016 allege during 7327.

AUD/USD IG Client Sentiment

AUD/USD Client Sentiment

  • A outline of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long AUDUSD- a ratio stands during +1.36 (57.6% of traders are long) –weak bearishreading
  • Retail has remained net-long given Mar 22nd; cost has changed 1.3% reduce given then
  • Long positions are 6.4% aloft than yesterday and 24.2% aloft from final week
  • Short positions are 4.9% aloft than yesterday and 3.7% reduce from final week
  • We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests AUDUSD prices might continue to fall. Traders are serve net-long than yesterday and final week, and a multiple of stream positioning and new changes gives us a stronger AUDUSD-bearish contrarian trade bias from a view standpoint

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AUD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

AUD/JPY Price Chart - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: AUD/JPY pennyless to multi-year lows final month with a decrease holding cost by a key focus section during 81.58. The evident risk stays reduce while next this threshold with successive support targets eyed during 79.45 and a median-line connection around 78.50s. Note that AUDJPY done a new multi-year low while AUDUSD has not; a inconsistency that mostly manifests itself during incomparable turns in price- keep a tighten eye here.

Bottom line: AUD/JPY stays during risk for serve waste while next a median-line of a extended descending pitchfork formation fluctuating off a early 2017 highs. A crack above this turn would bluster a incomparable allege / liberation targeting a 2017 open during 84.25. From a trade standpoint, we’ll preference vanishing strength near-term while next a 82-handle.

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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