Weekly Technical Perspective on a Crude Oil Prices

In this array we scale-back and take a demeanour during a broader technical design to benefit a bit some-more viewpoint on where we are in trend. Here are a pivotal targets cancellation levels that matter on a Crude Oil weekly chart(USOil). Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth relapse of this setup and more.

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Crude Oil Weekly Price Chart

Crude Oil Weekly Price Chart

Notes: Crude has been trade within a proportions of an descending pitchfork formation fluctuating off a 2016 low with cost branch from connection insurgency final week around a 75-handle. This segment is tangible by a 2011 pitch lows and converges on slope insurgency over a successive few weeks- note that we’ve also been imprinting ongoing bearish dissimilarity in a weekly movement profile.

Interim support targets rests during 71.32 corroborated by a outside-weekly annulment tighten during 69.29– a mangle there would advise a incomparable improvement is underway targeting a shifting together (red) during ~66 and pitchfork support during 64.27- both levels of seductiveness for probable depletion / long-entries IF reached. A topside crack invalidates a annulment play with such a unfolding eyeing successive insurgency objectives during a 2012 low during 77.26 corroborated by a 2008 trendline insurgency and a vital Fibonacci connection during 80.61/89.

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Bottom line: Crude prices are contrast up-trend insurgency and a evident hazard is reduce while next a high-week tighten during 73.93. From a trade standpoint, I’ll preference vanishing strength targeting a reduce slope lines with a broader opinion still constructive while within this formation.

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Crude Oil Trader Positioning

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment

  • A outline of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short Crude – a ratio stands during -1.46 (40.7% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
  • Traders have remained net-short given June 22nd; cost has changed 9.0% aloft given then
  • Long positions are 7.4% reduce than yesterday and 30.1% aloft from final week
  • Short positions are2.7% reduce than yesterday and 13.6% reduce from final week
  • We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-short suggests Oil – US Crude prices might continue to rise. Traders are some-more net-short than yesterday but reduction net-short from final week and the multiple of stream positioning and new changes gives us a serve churned Oil – US Crude trade bias from a view standpoint.

See how shifts in retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn some-more about sentiment!

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or hit him during mboutros@dailyfx.com

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