- A demeanour during a weekly technicals for USD/JPY streamer into FOMC / BoJ subsequent week
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In this array we scale-back and take a demeanour during a broader technical design to benefit a bit some-more viewpoint on where we are in trend. Here are a pivotal levels that matter on a weekly draft for a US Dollar vs a Japanese Yen (USD/JPY).
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USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart
Notes: USD/JPY posted an outside-weekly annulment off a pivotal insurgency operation final month during 110.88-111.65 (bearish). The annulment noted a finish of an eight-week convene in prices- in past instances of such an occurrence (9/2014 12/2013), a convene stalled out for during slightest a few weeks (shallow corrections), if not longer, before resuming higher. Note that slope resistance fluctuating off a 2015 highs converges on this insurgency section over a subsequent few weeks and might extent serve advances in a medium-term. The movement form also suggests a allege might be exposed here with weekly RSI holding subsequent a 60-threshold (sub-60 given early 2017).
Initial weekly support rests during 107.84 corroborated by a yearly low-week tighten during 106.26. A topside crack / tighten above this insurgency operation would be indispensable to symbol resumption with such a unfolding targeting a 200-week relocating normal / 61.8% retracement during 113.00/30.
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Bottom line: The Mar convene in USD/JPY is contrast a initial vital insurgency jump here with a allege during risk in a medium-term while subsequent 111.65. We can’t order out another exam of a highs though IF cost is streamer reduce on this stretch, demeanour for initial insurgency during a 52-week / 200-day relocating averages during ~110.15/30s. Keep in mind a FOMC BoJ seductiveness rate decisions are on daub subsequent week.
USD/JPY IG Client Positioning
- A outline of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/JPY- a ratio stands during +1.12 (52.8% of traders are long) – diseased bearishreading
- Retail has remained net-long given May 23rd ;price has changed 1.1% reduce given then
- Long positions are 0.4% aloft than yesterday and 12.3% aloft from final week
- Short positions are 5.6% aloft than yesterday and 9.0% aloft from final week
- We typically take a contrarian perspective to throng sentiment, and a fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices might continue to fall. However, sell traders are reduction net-long than yesterday though some-more net-long from final week andthe multiple of stream positioning new changes gives us a serve churned USD/JPY trade disposition from a view standpoint.
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Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives
- Weekly Technical Perspective on Crude Oil Prices
- Weekly Technical Perspective on a British Pound (GBP/USD)
- Weekly Technical Perspective on a US Dollar
- Weekly Technical Perspective on AUD/USD
— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or hit him during email@example.com